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DC Lite #383
"All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024"
Daily Chartbook
June 12, 2025
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. Wage growth vs. unemployment. "If times are tough, [employers] tend to simply hold pay constant. That's increasingly happening these days ... I take this as evidence that the low unemployment rate of 4.2 percent might be overstating the degree of strength in the jobs market."
2. Jobless claims. "The YoY% changes are most important for forecasting purposes ... so long as the comparisons remain under +10% there is not even a yellow flag caution for recession."
3. Bull markets. "Bull markets tend to be choppy and frustrating right around now, which sure played out this time. The good news though is once you can get past this rough part of the bull, better times are coming and they can last many years."
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4. Sector breadth. "All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024."
5. SPX ERP. "The equity risk premium ... is hovering around its lowest point since 2002 ... The S&P 500 has averaged a 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades when the risk premium has stood around current levels."
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