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DC Lite #381
"The lack of re-risking suggests that professional investors remain structurally concerned"
Daily Chartbook
June 10, 2025
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. NFIB. Small business optimism improved for the first time in four months, rising to 98.8, just above the long-term average (98).
2. Airplane traffic. “Travel has always been one of the best early indicators of a turn in the economy, because it is an expensive most easily deferred. This is true for business or personal travel. Airplane travel, measured by passenger traffic through TSA checkpoints is now down Y/Y.”
3. Funding spreads. "The decline in funding spreads in December and January was a clear warning-sign; however, the recent stability suggest that negative signal has faded. The lack of re-risking suggests that professional investors remain structurally concerned."
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4. SPX vs. Econ days. "Over the past three months, the S&P 500’s average realized volatility on days when the CPI report, the government’s monthly jobs data and Fed rate decisions are released has been nearly 42%, compared with a reading of 29% on all other sessions."
5. Earnings revisions breadth. "The rate of change for earnings revisions breadth is improving rapidly, driven by 'more upward revisions' as opposed to 'fewer downward revisions,' a positive for equity market performance."
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