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- DC Lite #377
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1. Government spending expectations. "Expectations for government spending in the US have been downgraded sharply. This tracks with how the Big Beautiful Bill compares to what clients were saying to me in December. Most thought that the deficit was going to explode and that spending cuts were impossible."
2. Businesses vs. tariffs. "Higher tariffs have affected businesses in a number of different ways ... All in all, almost half of businesses reported a decrease in their bottom lines, though a small share saw a boost as some businesses have been protected by tariffs."
3. Foreigners vs. US equity ETFs. "The appetite for US assets from foreigners remains depressed, according to our ETF flow tracker."
4. Post-correction paths. "S&P 500 back on a 'no-recession' path."
5. Equities vs. money supply. "Equities generally like ample liquidity, and the global money supply continues to make new highs and is now growing at 8% per year. This has pushed the MSCI ACWI back to its February all-time high. Based on this chart alone, one would expect the global stock market to resume its uptrend."
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