DC Lite #373

"Global economic surprise indexes that measure incoming economic data against consensus forecasts are at their highest levels in a year"

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Daily Chartbook
May 29, 2025

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1. Home sellers vs. buyers. "There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market."

2. CEO Confidence. The Conference Board's measure of CEO confidence "fell by 26 points in the second quarter of 2025 to 34, the lowest level since Q4 2022. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.) This was the largest quarter-over-quarter decline in the history of the survey, which started in 1976."

3. Economic surprise. “Global economic surprise indexes that measure incoming economic data against consensus forecasts are at their highest levels in a year. And after three months in negative territory, the U.S. surprise index is back in positive territory too, reaching its best level since February.”

4. SPX rally. "The S&P 500 is up more than +18% in the past 7 weeks (35 trading days). Here’s what the S&P did after similar rallies."

5. US vs. DM. "Developed ex-U.S. large caps have a CAPE ratio of 18.7 compared to 33.9 for U.S. large caps ... U.S. large caps hover in the 96th percentile while developed ex-U.S. equities quietly sit in the 40th percentile, modestly cheaper than their long-term median."

ICYMI

DC Lite #372

"US Pensions are modeled to SELL $19bn of US equities for month-end"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-372

DC Lite #371

"ETF Investors are selling into the rally"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-371

DC Lite #370

"Silver extends its rally toward multi-year highs, but Q-CTA positioning has only just started to recover"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-370

DC Lite #369

"Narrative volatility is here to stay in today’s Bifurcation Nation"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-369

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