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DC Lite #372
"US Pensions are modeled to SELL $19bn of US equities for month-end"
Daily Chartbook
May 28, 2025
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1. Private sector leverage. "Private sector leverage today is an order of magnitude less than it was at its peak in 2008. This makes the economy much more resilient and able to withstand unexpected stresses."
2. Current Activity Indicator. "The growth signal from US soft data has improved on the back of a better trade policy outlook."
3. Bitcoin options. "Open interest in options contracts has surged from $20.4B to $46.2B, a new all-time high."
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4. Pension rebalancing. "US Pensions are modeled to SELL $19bn of US equities for month-end… $19bn to sell ranks in the 89th percentile amongst all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over the past three years and in the 85th percentile going back to Jan 2000"
5. Quick recoveries. "Stocks took a beating, then roared back. Both were of a magnitude and speed rarely seen over nearly 100 years ... It's somewhat troubling that the two closest matches in speed and magnitude of the decline and rally were 2022 and 2001. The S&P's analog fits both almost perfectly, and both peaked right about now.
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