DC Lite #370

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1. Hard vs. soft data. "We’re seeing the convergence of the hard and soft data which on average happens around this time following an economic catalyst (in this case the imposition of the tariffs)."

2. Central banks vs. gold. Goldman "expects demand from central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, to give gold prices an ongoing boost ... Since 2022, their gold purchases have increased fivefold."

3. CTAs vs. silver. "Silver extends its rally toward multi-year highs, but Q-CTA positioning has only just started to recover—systematic flows still lag price action. If momentum persists, expect a potential wave of catch-up buying from trend-followers."

4. Equity ETF flows. "Less enthusiasm: Equity ETFs averaged roughly $3 Bn inflows per day from the start of 2025 through the April 8th market low (very aggressive)… that’s down to $1.6 Bn per day now, reflecting a more normalized average despite a 17% rally off the recent low."

5. Guidance. Of the 478 companies that have reported Q1 results, 259 (54%) have commented on guidance for FY25. Of those 259, only 8 (3%) withdrew guidance or failed to update previous guidance. These figures pale in comparison to the uncertainty experienced during Covid lockdowns.

ICYMI