DC Lite #366

"Retail traders went on a record dip buying spree Monday"

Daily Chartbook
May 19, 2025

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1. Government debt. "The CBO’s projections are arguably too optimistic because they assume lower interest rates than what the market is expecting. Using market rates, interest expense is set to double to 6% of GDP over the next 10 years. That why the Moody’s downgrade matters: In game theory, it’s called a 'focal point'."

@peterberezinbca

2. Gold ETF flows. "Global gold ETFs saw further net outflows last week, of US$3bn (~30 tonnes). That's the highest weekly outflows since September 2022, although there were a couple of instances of very similar net outflows in 2023."

@krishangopaul

3. Retail flows. However, "Retail traders went on a record dip buying spree Monday ... Individual investors purchased a net $4.1 billion in US stocks through 12:30 p.m. in New York, the largest level ever for that time of day — and broke the $4 billion threshold by noon for the first time ever."

JPMorgan via Alexandra Semenova - Bloomberg

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4. Netscape vs. ChatGPT. "The Nasdaq after the releases of Netscape versus ChatGPT continues to track eerily closely. Bulls should hope the trend remains because we’re still in 1997 on this analogue…"

@bespokeinvest

5. Earnings revisions breadth. "Earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500 is now at -15%, off the mid-April lows of -25%. This indicator has leading properties in terms of the direction of forward EPS and is an important gauge of corporate confidence."