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DC Lite #386
"Annual interest payments are approaching a fifth of tax revenues"
Daily Chartbook
June 17, 2025
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1. NAHB Housing Market Index. "Confidence among US homebuilders fell in June to the lowest level since December 2022 ... All three of the overall index’s components declined, with a measure of present sales falling to the lowest level since 2012."
2. US interest payments. "Annual interest payments are approaching a fifth of tax revenues, considerably higher than the average of other countries around the world ... The temptation to skew issuance further to the front of the curve will increase, even as this adds to longer-term inflation and central-bank independence risks."
3. CTAs vs. commodities. "Systematic flows favor metals & softs: Silver & Cotton lead with strong positive Z-scores, while Corn & Soybeans remain deeply underweight—trend followers still pressing grains, but Diesel may be bottoming."
4. Crowded trades. 'Long gold' remains the most crowded trade (3rd consecutive month) followed by 'Long Mag7' and 'Short USD'.
Chart: BofA via @mikezaccardi
5. SPX vs. Fed day. "The chart below shows how the S&P has done on an intraday basis across all Powell Fed days since 2018 along with just the last ten meetings."
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