DC Lite #389

"More than half the world made new highs last week – the best reading in over a decade"

Author

Daily Chartbook
June 30, 2025

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Equity positioning. "Equity positioning has risen significantly off the bottom but is still far below February levels and remains underweight."

2. CTAs vs. equities. "We model CTAs long $67bn of global equities (61st percentile) after selling -9.2bn last week."

3. Hedge funds vs. Financials. Last "week’s notional net buying in US Financials was the largest since Dec ’16 and the second largest in the last 10 years (+3.0 z score) as HFs net bought the sector for a 5th straight week."

4. Global highs. "More than half the world made new highs last week – the best reading in over a decade."

5. SPX vs. trade war. "The market being back at the highs raises the risk of renewed escalations on tariffs. This would be in keeping with the pattern of rallies prompting escalations which then drive pullbacks, followed by relents which then spark rallies again."

ICYMI

DC Lite #388

"Today marks the start of Summer ... Historically, summer has been the weakest season for equities, with average gains of just 0.6% over the past 40 years."

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-388

DC Lite #387

"The economic data change index is at its lowest level in more than two years, while the economic surprise index is at its lowest level of 2025"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-387

DC Lite #386

"Annual interest payments are approaching a fifth of tax revenues"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-386

DC Lite #385

"Year-to-date inflows into US mutual funds and ETFs are on the verge of turning negative"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-385

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