DC Lite #360

1. Gold vs. consumer sentiment. "The greatest risk to gold investors is a breakout of Happiness! Should the tariff war wind down and the Fed cuts interest rates in a slow growing but sustained expansion, pessimism will finally ease, and the price of gold will sink."

2. Global M2 vs. BTC. The recent rise in global M2 suggests the Bitcoin price will move higher.

3. Systematic positioning. "'If everyone is so bearish, who is buying?' ... (un)natural answer = systematic community who have purchased ~100bn of global equities in the last 10 days."

4. Equity Market Regime Model. "A Bloomberg Intelligence model that tracks the benchmark stock gauge … fell into the cautious red zone in March and April … The seven prior instances have been associated with a 5.6% average drop in the S&P 500 in the next 12 months."

5. Monthly returns. "The S&P 500 has gained 14% from the low posted 1 month ago, representing the best 1M return since 2020. 1M rolling returns of these levels (>14%) has often carried on with a forward 12M return of 25% on average and positive 95% of the time since 1978 (56 instances)."

ICYMI