DC Lite #357

"EPS breadth suggests that FED should be in cutting mode not pausing"

Author

Daily Chartbook
May 06, 2025

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Redbook. Same-store retail sales show no signs of a slowdown in consumer spending, +6.9% YoY for the week ending May 3.

2. American credit risk. "Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked about how his job is to 'take away the credit risk of the US government.' Looking at that CDS chart, you could say there’s some work to be done."

3. CTAs vs. gold. "Systematic flows are backing gold’s breakout—Q-CTA positioning is near peak levels as prices push toward new highs. Strong alignment = strong trend. Unless we see a reversal in positioning, the path of least resistance remains up."

4. Offense vs. Defense. "Defensive sentiment has continued to decline with Offense sentiment holding flat despite the rise in the broad market. This has resulted in the rise in the Sentiment Spread just barely above zero."

5. SPX EPS vs. Fed. "EPS breadth suggests that FED should be in cutting mode not pausing."

ICYMI

DC Lite #356

"Funding spreads declined during the recent rally. This suggests macro investors trimmed their equity exposure on the recent strength"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-356

DC Lite #355

"As long as there is full employment, households are structural net buyers of US equities"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-355

DC Lite #354

"MAGMAN NTM PE relative to the S&P 500 is at the lowest level since 2017"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-354

DC Lite #353

"Policy uncertainty has gripped the market in 2025."

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-353

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