DC Lite #358

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1. Used car prices. "Wholesale used-vehicle prices ... were much higher in April compared to March. The [index] increased to 208.2, an increase of 4.9% from a year ago and also higher than March levels by 2.7%. This is the highest reading for the index since October 2023."

2. Wage Growth Tracker. "Low unemployment rate overstates labor market health. One sign that slack continues to build is that more individuals are seeing no wage change, up to 13.4% (after seasonal adjustment), a fresh high. Recall that employers rarely cut pay outright they tend to hold workers flat."

3. FFR vs. inflation. "The Fed is signaling that it will lean toward the side of its dual mandate ... that is furthest from its goal. As of today, that is inflation. It is reasonable to conclude that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates in the near term."

4. 1995 vs. 2025. "The Nasdaq Comp is broadly, and almost eerily, tracking its mid-1990s experience in terms of its bull run & occasional pullbacks. Since the Comp’s low in Dec 2022, it’s up 73%. That’s close to the Comp’s 68% gain over the same period from the start of 1995."

5. S&P 500. "At times of uncertainty, I find it useful to pull up a simple chart of the S&P 500 and ask myself: do I want to be long or short this chart? Different people will come up with different answers, but for me the chart below suggests 'long.'"

ICYMI