DC Lite #344

"Truck driver is the number one job in 34 states. Rates fell off a cliff since Liberation Day."

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1. Trucking rates. "Truck driver is the number one job in 34 states. Rates fell off a cliff since Liberation Day."

2. Hard vs. soft data. "If the hard data [blue] does not turn lower in the next few weeks to month, we will have to start asking if there has been a big misunderstanding about the impact of tariffs on the economy."

3. USD hedging. Bearish USD "sentiment is now spilling into options markets, where traders are paying a premium — for the first time in five years — to hedge against a weaker greenback over the next 12 months."

4. Sentiment Composite. "We are currently seeing more bears than bulls enter the market, as my sentiment composite has reached a new 16-month high. It's remarkable how price action can influence sentiment."

5. US vs. G10. "US stock market underperformance versus stock markets in the rest of the G10 is approaching -10%. This is about two things: (i) markets think tariffs hurt the US more than the rest of the world; (ii) markets are unwinding the US exceptionalism trade."

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