DC Lite #341

In partnership with

1. Inflation expectations. "This chart is important not as a forecast of inflation, but a real time evidence that Independents have turned against president's trade policy. Time to end trade war or face political disaster (green line: independents siding with dems)."

2. Brent positioning. "The net managed money position (i.e., hedge funds, speculators) in Brent crude CRATERED last week following Trump's tariff announcement and OPEC+'s surprise output hike acceleration. Largest weekly decline in net position on record."

3. IG fund flows. "There were $9.8 billion of outflows from investment-grade bond funds over the past week, the 4th largest outflow on record."

4. Put term structure. "The 2 week 5 delta put trades 20 vol points over the 3 month 5 delta put. This is pricing pure panic basically."

5. Tech trailing returns. "History strongly suggests both the Nasdaq 100 and US large cap Tech sector should rally over the next 50 trading days, and by double digits."

ICYMI

• Thu 4/10 #340: "This earnings season isn’t about corporate results. It’s about tariffs"

• Wed 4/9 #339: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped by the most since 2008 and 2001, respectively

• Tue 4/8 #338: "A market bottom signal based on extremes in breadth has activated"

• Mon 4/7 #337: "'No recession' bears are rare, with only three recorded in the past century (the last being in 2022)."