"What's changing isn't the fundamental story - it's the market structure"

1. SPX vs. oil. "Since at least 1970, the primary fallout for the stock market from any major oil price spike generally begins 'once oil prices peak'".

2. SPX vs. DXY. DXY hit a 52-week high on Friday for the first time in a year. Perhaps counterintuitively, the S&P 500's return profile after similar occurrences shows mostly above-average performance. See the full results here.

3. Funding spreads. Professional investors remain active: funding spreads have risen to the widest since late 2024.

4. AI vs. volatility. "What's changing isn't the fundamental story - it's the market structure. Leverage continues to build, and volatility across large-cap Tech continues to expand relative to the broader market even as prices move higher."

5. Valuation vs. profitability. "At today's record margin levels, the model would typically point to a valuation closer to 23x earnings. Instead, the market is currently trading about 1.5 standard deviations below its long-term regression trend."

ICYMI