"The weight of the evidence remains with the bulls"

1. PCE forecasts. "With the May PPI and CPI in hand, forecasters expect core PCE to print around 0.35% in May. This would raise the y/y rate to 3.4%. The six-month annualized rate would climb to 4.1%, the highest since June 2023. Both measures were below 3% in the year-earlier period."

2. Credit growth. "Is US Monetary Policy Tight? Credit growth is one way to assess the monetary policy stance. Corporate and credit card loan growth picking up strongly since the start of the year suggests policy isn't restrictive. Meanwhile, it clearly remains restrictive for the housing market."

3. Sentiment indicators. "With volatility easing, market sentiment is back to neutral, a long way from euphoria and leaving room for further upside".

4. Bullish confirmations vs. bearish divergences. "The weight of the evidence remains with the bulls. Are there a few yellow flags? Sure. But when I step back and look across the board, the number of bullish confirmations still outweighs the divergences. For now, the market continues to earn the benefit of the doubt."

5. Capex vs. ROE. "The AI capex boom is likely to weigh on Return on Equity (RoE) for the mega-cap tech stocks in coming years."

ICYMI