"We believe consensus 2027 capex estimates are once again too conservative"

1. Dollar positioning. "Hedge funds, asset managers and other speculators accumulated $27.8 billion worth of bets that the dollar will strengthen as of June 9 ... It's the most since February 2025."

2. Short ETF volume. "Coming into [Thursday], inverse ETF volume had hit 42% of spec total. Without a broader negative catalyst, this is where pullbacks historically stop."

3. SPX vs. Fed chair debuts. "Next Wednesday will be Kevin Warsh's first Fed day as chair. The S&P has never had an up day on the first Fed day for new chairs (since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the day of the meeting)."

4. Hyperscaler capex. "We believe consensus 2027 capex estimates are once again too conservative. Consensus estimates imply hyperscaler capex will equal $920 billion in 2027, representing a sharp deceleration in growth from 84% to 22%. Analyst estimates have been too conservative during each of the past three years by an average of 45 pp."

5. SPX FCF vs. net income. "Free cash flow used to be about 90% of aggregate net income, now it's hovering around 75%".

ICYMI