"Nine of the ten largest retail trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month"

1. FOMC. "Very hawkish dot plot. Nine out of 18 officials have at least one hike this year (and six of those 9 have *multiple hikes*). Only one person has a cut this year, and one participant (presumably Warsh) didn't submit an SEP. The statement gets a complete writethru from top to bottom, much shorter".

2. Yield spread. The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields narrowed sharply to its flattest since Apr'25.

3. Retail activity. "May shattered previous activity records in cash equities ... From this peak, activity has accelerated further in June, with volumes this month tracking 9% above May's record. Nine of the ten largest retail trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month, including seven during the first half of June alone."

4. Sector correlation. "Average S&P sector correlations to the index reflect market confidence. By this measure, investors are very optimistic right now. The only recently comparable period was mid-2024, going into a 9% correction caused by a yen revaluation/Nikkei flash crash".

5. SPX primary trend. "The S&P 500 has now spent 52 consecutive weeks with its 10-week moving average above its 40-week moving average ... Until that changes, the trend deserves the benefit of the doubt."

ICYMI