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"This decrease is one of the healthiest things that can happen for the market"

DC Lite #643

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Hormuz traffic. "Confirmed oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to ~4 MMbpd on a trailing 10-day average basis. Down from ~15 MMbpd in late-June and at the lowest level since late-May."

2. Margin debt. "US margin debt as a % of GDP is near all-time highs, but as a % of market cap, it is just getting back towards the middle of the post-2010 range. That said, the speed of the surge does look like Dot Com".

3. Levered ETF AUM. "The AUM of levered ETFs has dropped by over $100bn... and of that $100bn, $63bn AUM has come out of semis. To contextualize that, 39% of levered semi ETF aum has been reduced ... This decrease is one of the healthiest things that can happen for the market."

4. Semis flows. "As my friend @WalterDeemer says, 'When it's time to buy, you won't want to'. That's NOT what's happening in $SMH. Inflows are spiking as the stocks weaken; bottoms are historically built on fear, not greed."

5. Q2 EPS growth. "Earlier in the AI cycle, hyperscalers drove more growth, whereas in 2Q, semiconductors are expected to generate nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth … Put simply, chip buyers are funding a earnings boom for chip sellers."

ICYMI

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