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"Despite the day-to-day rotation beneath the surface, cyclical leadership remains firmly intact"
DC Lite #641
Daily Chartbook
July 16, 2026
Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
Don’t forget to bookmark our new home for backtest studies and dashboards here. Latest:
1) SPX 200DMA Rises for 300 Consecutive Days (n=15, 12M hit rate = 50%)
2) SPX 70-Day Streak RSI > 40 + 4% Drawdown (n=14, 12M hit rate = 83%)
3) SPX After VIX Fresh 120-Session Low < 16 (n=39, 12M hit rate = 83%)
1. Retail sales. "Adjusted for inflation, retail sales show resilience & price sensitivity".
2. Iranian Rial. "The US is doing a good job with its blockade. It's disabling empty Iranian oil tankers coming into the Gulf, preventing Iran from using them as floating storage. It's taking out oil infrastructure. Iran's currency is falling to new lows. This is the way..."
3. Investors Intelligence. "Our favorite Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 3.12 last week, well above its historical average, suggesting that investor optimism has become increasingly widespread and may be approaching excessively bullish territory in the near term."
4. High Beta Mo. Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket is on track for its worth monthly performance in ~17 years.
5. Cyclicals vs. Defensives. "Despite the day-to-day rotation beneath the surface, cyclical leadership remains firmly intact. The spread between cyclical and defensive industries is still positive, a condition that has historically coincided with above-average S&P 500 returns."
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