"Has retail started selling equities? No."

1. CPI. "Waller put a lot of emphasis on inflation breadth. June CPI was undoubtedly soft from a breadth perspective - only 43% of the basket running above 2.5% annualised inflation (lowest since Feb '25). 47% of the basket saw -ve %MoM prices... the most since Aug 2024."

2. FOMC skew. "While the dot plot does not identify individual participants ... the voting members of the committee currently skew more dovish than nonvoting members".

3. Retail activity. "Has retail started selling equities? No. Retail remains the strongest structural buyer of US equities ... retail is deploying more capital than average this month, with average daily net buying running ~3.2x the historical monthly average."

4. SPX RSI streak. The S&P 500's RSI has held above 40 for 72 straight days despite experiencing a 4.5% drawdown during the streak. Over the past 50 years, similar setups were followed by weakness over the coming weeks, with stronger returns over longer time horizons. See full dashboard here.

5. Energy vs. ex-Energy. "Energy is increasingly moving against the broader market. The trailing 1-year daily correlation between S&P 500 Energy and S&P 500 Ex-Energy has turned negative for the first time since the dot-com bubble and reached its most negative level ever."

ICYMI