"Stock-to-stock correlation inside the Russell 1000 just touched levels seen only a handful of times in ~40 years"

1. Growth vs. inflation. "Stagflation Creeps Into the 2026 Bloomberg Consensus: Economists have cut US GDP forecasts and raised CPI since the strike on Iran - growth now seen at 2.1%, inflation at 3.4%".

2. Fed funds rate. "Upside risks to inflation continue to outweigh downside risks to employment, and inflation risks extend well beyond oil prices. That explains why, despite a sharp decline in oil prices, FFR futures continue to signal one to two FFR hikes over the next 12 months."

3. SPX vs. VIX. VIX made a fresh 120-day low below 16 for the first time in 30 days. The forward return profile for the S&P 500 following previous instances featured above-average hit rates but below-average median returns. See full dashboard here.

4. Russell 1000 correlation. "Stock-to-stock correlation inside the Russell 1000 just touched levels seen only a handful of times in ~40 years. A quiet index $SPX . A loud tape w/ winners and losers canceling each other out. Think alpha vs beta."

5. SPX EPS growth. "Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report earnings growth above 29% for Q2. This would be the highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (32.0%)."

ICYMI