"Non-AI earnings growth is accelerating"

1. FOMC minutes. "The minutes of Warsh's first Fed meeting scores as the most hawkish since April 2022."

2. AI vs. jobs. "Job postings for occupations with more potential exposure to AI-driven change, including software development, generally fell the most between 2022 and 2026. But over the past year, the most AI-exposed occupations have generally seen the largest rebound in postings."

3. Hyperscaler capex. Goldman's latest forecast puts hyperscaler capex at $740bn for 2026 and $996bn for 2027.

4. Open-source use vs. AI spend. "There is a common assumption that firms turn to open-source or Chinese models mainly to cut costs. That may be true at the task level, but it is not showing up as lower overall AI spend ... A better read is that cheaper models may let these firms do more with AI, not that they are pulling back from AI spending overall."

5. AI vs. ex-AI earnings. "Non-AI earnings growth is accelerating, which underpins (although doesn't guarantee) the argument for a broadening out."

ICYMI