"Wait for EPS to miss or downward revisions to confirm a top, and you'll fly into the side of a mountain"

1. NFP. "57K jobs added in June (111K average for last three months), less than expected but probably more than breakeven."

2. Unemployment rate. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% (4.3% prev) in June, but the decline was not driven by hiring strength: the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5%, the lowest since Mar'21.

3. AAII Sentiment Survey. The share of bullish responses dropped by the most in nearly 5 years (bottom right), pushing the bull-bear spread back into negative territory.

4. Dotcom Semis: EPS vs. price. "Wait for EPS to miss or downward revisions to confirm a top, and you'll fly into the side of a mountain like 2000. Price peaked in March, EPS kept rising into 2001."

5. Q2 EPS revisions. During Q2, analysts increased EPS estimates for the quarter by 3.4%, the most since Q2'21. Analysts typically reduce estimates during the quarter. Six sectors saw a rise in estimates led by Energy (+61.5%) and Tech (+8.7%).

ICYMI