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- "Feels like the market 's gone nowhere lately? You're not wrong."
"Feels like the market 's gone nowhere lately? You're not wrong."
DC Lite #640
Daily Chartbook
July 15, 2026
Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
Don’t forget to bookmark our new home for backtest studies and dashboards here. Latest:
1) SPX 200DMA Rises for 300 Consecutive Days (n=15, 12M hit rate = 50%)
2) SPX 70-Day Streak RSI > 40 + 4% Drawdown (n=14, 12M hit rate = 83%)
3) SPX After VIX Fresh 120-Session Low < 16 (n=39, 12M hit rate = 83%)
1. PCE estimate. "Based on the inputs of CPI and PPI, we estimate that core PCE inflation will climb 0.16 percent in June. That translates to 1.9 percent SAAR. Welcome news but hardly enough to derail the conversation around rate hikes."
2. Bank deposit growth. "Deposit growth this year is outpacing the expansion in commercial bank lending and securities holdings ... this looks like strong evidence that banks have capacity to extend more credit."
3. Investment Manager Index. "Risk appetite remains muted as investors worry about near-term returns. Concerns focus on valuations, geopolitics, and monetary policy."
4. SPX vs. ATHs. "Feels like the market 's gone nowhere lately? You're not wrong. Only the 4th time this bull market $SPX has sat within 5% of its ATH without a new high. Excluding 2024, every prior case saw a real pullback. Bears are smiling."
5. SPX vs. 200DMA. Since 1975, the S&P 500's 200DMA has seen a 300-day uptrend streak 14 other times. The sample size is small, but the forward return profile for the index over the next 12 months is well below-average. See full dashboard here.
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