"The bull / bear debate ultimately boils down to the chart below"

1. Hormuz traffic. "We see a three-stage process for flows through Hormuz to ramp back up again: Stage 1 (weeks 1-3) Cautious Reopening ... Stage 2 (weeks 4-8) System Normalization ... Stage 3 (months 3-4) Closing the Production Gap."

2. Equity ETF flows. "If March ... was about restraint, April thus far has been more about re-engagement ... on one hand, it's a torrid pace. On the other, the sentiment backdrop, because of March's washout, is actually still supportive today."

3. Cyclicals vs. Defensives. "Three cyclical vs defensive ratios are breaking out together across large, mid, and small caps."

4. Risk ratios. A pair of key risk appetite ratios—SPHB/SPLV and RSDP/RSPS—have diverged in recent days. While the former has surged, confirming the broader S&P 500's highs, the latter remains ~5% below its January peak.

5. SPX margins. "The bull / bear debate ultimately boils down to the chart below: do you believe in rising EPS margins (red line), or falling FCF margins (blue line)? The reality is probably in between, but I lean bearish because the market is pricing permanently higher profit margins".

ICYMI