"Sector leadership has flipped relative to the pre-crisis pattern"

1. Retail sales. "Despite yet another ‘upside surprise’ to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month. Goods prices are rising faster than the dollar value of goods sales. Consumers are spending dollars, but aren't necessarily consuming more output".

2. NER Pulse. "For the four weeks ending April 4, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs a week. It was the fifth straight week of improvement in hiring."

3. Sector leadership. "Sector leadership has flipped relative to the pre-crisis pattern, pointing to a broader change in what the market is pricing."

4. AI vs. SPX. "The weight of AI companies in S&P 500 is close to 45%".

5. SPX EPS revisions. "Over the past 15 years, [analysts have] revised their EPS estimates down by an average of 2% between January and April ... 2026 is a different story."

ICYMI