"It seems Wall Street analysts haven't received the memo about the war"

1. NFIB. "Small firms see price pressures abating. According to NFIB, the percent of firms planning to raise average selling prices slid to 24 in March, the lowest since July 2024. That plans to raise prices have slid even as oil prices have increased might imply limited pass-through."

2. Weekly ETF flows. "Investors poured money back into market last week with U.S. large caps getting largest inflows by far...only U.S. small caps and government bonds had net outflows".

3. Materials positioning. "Materials positioning is at the 0 %ile to 2009."

4. Fundamentals. "It seems Wall Street analysts haven't received the memo about the war. Their consensus estimates for S&P 500 revenues and earnings for this year and next year have been rising noticeably in recent weeks."

5. Earnings revisions. "For the S&P 1500, the net spread between companies with upward revisions and downward revisions over the last four weeks is negative 8.4% ... [which] would be the most negative spread at the start of an earnings season since the Q1 2025 reporting period a year ago."

ICYMI