"Over the next week, buy estimates are some of the largest on record"

1. Iran blockade. "Oil exports (blue) pay for imports of goods (red) and services (orange), so - if you interrupt oil exports - you force the red and orange bars to zero. That’ll cause severe shortages in Iran, causing economic activity to tumble. The absence of hard currency inflows also means the currency will enter a devaluation spiral, pushing inflation up sharply. The consequences of a blockade for Iran’s economy are therefore dire."

2. US O&G rig count. "We’ve now had more than a month of elevated oil prices ... Yet the Baker Hughes Oil and Gas Rig Count has yet to budge, with the number of active rigs actually ticking down by three to 545 for the latest available week (ending April 10)."

3. Equity positioning. "Equity positioning is bracing for a sharp earnings slowdown, but recent data are undermining that story. If the gloom fades, risk appetite may rebound fast and lift stocks".

4. CTAs vs. US equities. "We estimate that CTAs bought $19bn of US equities last week. Over the next week, buy estimates are some of the largest on record... We have CTAs as buyers of $43.5bn US equities in a flat tape over the next week."

5. US EPS growth. "Industry analysts are very optimistic about earnings growth this year, with their expectations of double-digit gains for all four quarters. They may be a bit too optimistic."

ICYMI