"Hyperscalers are issuing so much debt that they may be causing a supply-demand issue at the long end of the yield curve"

1. Yields vs. oil. "Correlation between the 10Y and oil is the highest since the GFC"

2. Hyperscaler issuance. "Hyperscalers are issuing so much debt that they may be causing a supply-demand issue at the long end of the yield curve. In 2026 so far, debt issuance by the five hyperscalers plus NVIDIA is ~$320bn (including SPVs for which these companies are backstop obligors on data center leases).

3. P/E vs. PEG. "Despite the forward P/E, the PEG ratio in the top graph is cheap because the longer-term earnings growth estimate shown in the bottom graph is at its highest level since at least 1995."

4. AI customer concentration. "The latest threat to the AI trade. AI companies' revenues are heavily dependent on a small set of customers. 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic's enterprise revenues come from 1% of their customers, and it's not getting better. This is a level of concentration risk unseen in any other software category we track."

5. LLM Token Expenditure Index. "It turns out the LLM token index has not put in bottom. In fact, it put in a new low. In the last two weeks, both open and closed LLM token indices declined, however the decline of the closed models is the dominant factor. YTD, open LLM index has overtaken the closed LLM index."

ICYMI