"Today the US is once more speeding into the debt ceiling"

1. Treasury yield curve. "Warsh's comments on inflation at the July 29 press conference leaned dovish as he focused on the oil price shock not broadening out into generalized inflation. He put a more hawkish spin on the same data today, unwinding the curve steepening since then..."

2. US debt. "Today the US is once more speeding into the debt ceiling, except this time the debt-to-GDP ratio is about 25% points higher ... So don't be surprised if we hear increasingly unconventional solutions to the US's poor debt dynamics"

3. Agriculture streak. "Something BIG is happening in agriculture. The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index has now posted 10 consecutive daily gains-a feat not seen since 2009 and exceeded only 8 other times in more than a century."

4. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. "Coinbase Premium turned positive, indicating bullish U.S. institutional sentiment."

5. Frontier lab growth. Anthropic and OpenAI’s "growth rates have been both extremely rapid and remarkably robust since 2023: together, they tripled in 2024, and then grew more than fourfold in 2025. And this year they've already grown by 3.5x ... these labs are growing faster from a higher baseline."

ICYMI