"South Korea is often regarded as the world economy's early-warning system"

1. PCE. "The inflation problem remains". Compared to a year ago, today there are more core PCE categories above 3% and fewer below 0%.

2. Treasury ownership. "For two decades the world's surplus savers - foreign central banks above all - recycled their reserves into Treasuries almost automatically, and asked little in return. That era is now passing. As the official buyer steps back, the task of financing an ever-larger debt falls to private investors who will hold it only if paid to, and (as now), possibly paid more."

3. Gold seasonality. "Gold's historical seasonal pattern is sending a compelling message as summer draws to a close ... Historically, gold tends to find its footing in mid-July before entering a sustained period of seasonal strength that extends through much of the fall and into year-end."

4. South Korea exports. "South Korea is often regarded as the world economy's early-warning system ... Its exports confirm that demand is holding up ... This is the artificial-intelligence boom ceasing to be a story about valuations and becoming one about real, tradable demand"

5. EPS revisions vs. price. "Over three quarters of S&P 500 constituents with year-ahead revisions up at least 30% year to date have seen their 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio de-rate (that is, become less expensive)."

ICYMI