"No curve inversion = Buy the mid-cycle hike"

1. JOLTS. Job openings rose by 89k to 7.271 million in July (vs. 7.3 million est) from a downwardly revised 7.182 million in June. Hires, quits, and layoffs & discharges all ticked down. The ratio of vacancies-to-unemployed rose to the highest since Jan'25.

2. AI vs. jobs. "Existing workers are much more likely to be retrained than replaced by AI."

3. SPX vs. first hike. "No curve inversion = Buy the mid-cycle hike, we still don't see inversion of the curve in most scenarios. History says S&P 500 hates the hikes for 1-3 months but makes new highs in 6-months ... exception of '22 when Yield curve inverted"

4. AAII Asset Allocation. AAII investor allocation to stocks ticked up in August to a fresh YTD high (71.1%).

5. A/D Lines. "Cumulative advance-decline lines are all below their 50-day moving averages. End of the world? Not yet. Clear sign of weakening market breadth conditions? Absolutely."

ICYMI

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