DC Lite #471

"When a cycle doesn’t follow its usual pattern, it says something about the underlying trend"

Author

Daily Chartbook
October 24, 2025

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1. Alt jobless claims. "Adding up state claims data, estimate for the country is that initial jobless claims increased to 227k this past week per Bloomberg [Economics] … still quite low."

2. CPI. Headline and core CPI came in below expectations in September, both on monthly and annual basis.

3. SPX vs. seasonality. "When a cycle doesn’t follow its usual pattern, it says something about the underlying trend. This market continues to show resilience and steady demand, even during a phase when seasonality would normally act as a headwind."

4. Q3 earnings. "At this stage of the third quarter earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting strong results. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages."

5. Earnings talk. "Companies are also avoiding mentions of negative macro economic headwinds on earnings calls."

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ICYMI

DC Lite #470

"Today, the US government shutdown officially became the second-longest in history"

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"This is what we generally want to see in the later stages of a cyclical bull market"

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DC Lite #468

"Pay attention to what consumers and executives do, not just what they say"

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DC Lite #467

"Contrary to widespread fears about the economic outlook, key credit indicators are turning more bullish"

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DC Lite #466

"Almost the entire increase in the gold share of reserves since 2009 is a function of the rising market price of gold itself"

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