DC Lite #426

"The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run"

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Daily Chartbook
August 21, 2025

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1. Jobless claims. Both initial and continuing claims rose by more than expected. The former remains within its recent range but the latter made new cycle highs.

2. Flash PMIs. S&P Global's Flash Composite PMI rose to an 8-month high driven by renewed improvement in Manufacturing PMI, which signaled the best factory business conditions since May 2022. Job gains in the sector reached the highest since March 2022.

3. Retail activity. "Retail investor behavior changed during the Tech selling in the past 2 days, breaking their 2-mo long daily buying streak (+$1B avg/day) to become net sellers (-$140M) on Tuesday. They prioritized profit taking in single stocks, while buying the dip in broad-based market ETFs."

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4. Nasdaq: 1990s vs. today. "The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, up more than double (106%) since its low in December 2022, close to the index’s 111% gain over the same period from the start of 1995."

5. R2K EPS revisions. "Earnings momentum has turned. EPS revisions just went positive for the first time since late 2022 and before that, 2020. Both times, small caps ripped higher."

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DC Lite #425

"Should interest rate relief be delayed, small caps will likely underperform"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-425

DC Lite #424

Retail flows are marching higher, Pros flows have been trending sideways

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-424

DC Lite #423

"58% of companies raised their full-year 2025 guidance, double the share of firms that did so in 1Q"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-423

DC Lite #422

"On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum. Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being 'paid for' by inflation"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-422

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