DC Lite #422

"On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum. Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being 'paid for' by inflation"

Daily Chartbook
August 15, 2025

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1. Retail sales. "On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum. Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being 'paid for' by inflation."

@econ_parker

2. Import prices. Import prices rose 0.4% MoM in July while prices ex-petroleum rose 0.3%. Both were the largest monthly increase since Apr'24.

Koyfin (get 20% off)

3. Foreigners vs. USTs. Foreign investor holdings of US Treasuries rose by $80.2bn in June to record $9.13 trillion.

Yardeni

4. ETF leverage ratio. "2025 began with our leverage ratio at +12:1, an offsides reading. The April shakeout brought the ratio to roughly +4:1. Was that enough? Perhaps... but one risk to consider into the fall is a return of aggressive attitudes in the levered space. Back to +10:1 today."

Todd Sohn - Strategas via Michael Batnick - The Irrelevant Investor

5. US sector margins. "Margins are undoubtedly under pressure. While they remain at healthy levels, on a Q2/Q2 basis they rose in just three of the 11 GICS sectors – Communications, Tech and Healthcare."

Andrea Cicione - TS Lombard

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