DC Lite #423

"58% of companies raised their full-year 2025 guidance, double the share of firms that did so in 1Q"

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1. Tariff costs. "U.S. businesses are currently eating most of the incremental costs from higher tariffs, which are a headwind for profit margins. [Goldman] analysts expect consumers to eventually bear most of the costs through higher prices."

2. Foreigners vs. US assets. "The latest [US Treasury] data through June show very strong inflows into equities (purple) in particular, which points to growing market optimism on US growth."

3. Breadth thrust followup. "It has been three months since the May spike in the number stocks making new 20-day highs signaled a breadth thrust ... If the historical pattern holds, the S&P 500 is likely to continue to drift up and to the right (with relatively little downside volatility) as we move toward 2026."

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4. Earnings guidance. "58% of companies raised their full-year 2025 guidance, double the share of firms that did so in 1Q."

5. Earnings revisions momentum. "Analysts are ratcheting up earnings estimates for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in nearly four years."

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