DC Lite #406

"Big moves in individual stocks are happening at a historically high rate"

Daily Chartbook
July 24, 2025

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1. Financial conditions. "The Chicago Fed's national index of broad financial conditions in the U.S. economy has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years, suggesting financing in the economy is more than ample."

Mike Dolan - Reuters

2. US trade deficit. "Recent trade deals ... mean that much of the US trade deficit is now covered by agreements ... it’s true that lots of smaller deals remain to be negotiated, but - as the gray area in the chart shows - those really aren’t economically meaningful. In effect, the trade war is over."

Robin J. Brooks

3. US oil production. "For the first time in four years, US oil production is down on a YoY basis … US oil companies are responding to oil prices near four-year lows by curtailing capex, as shown by the rig count having also fallen back to 2021 levels."

Larry Adam - Raymond James

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4. Big moves. "Big moves in individual stocks are happening at a historically high rate. Chart shows the percent of Russell 3000 stocks that have moved up more than 20% in a single day over the past 252 trading days."

@fernavid

5. Cyclicals vs. Defensives. "Relatively stronger breadth from cyclicals over defensives is the type of participation expected during bull markets. Recently, defensive breadth has improved vs cyclical even as the S&P 500 has made new highs. The condition warrants monitoring as divergences can precede selloffs."

@_rob_anderson

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