DC Lite #399

"Retail is back."

Author

Daily Chartbook
July 15, 2025

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. CPI. "There are tariff impacts showing up. Among likely impacts, the price levels for both appliances as well as household furnishing are already jumping, and the trade war has barely just begun."

2. BTC realized vol. "While BTC has historically been criticized for its high volatility, these recent rallies have occured against a low volatility backdrop, especially relative to historical highs."

3. Retail activity. "Retail is back."

4. SPX vs. A-D Line. Today saw the "smallest loss <EVER> for the S&P 500 in a session where the advance-decline line was this negative (based on data going back to 1997)."

5. Domestic vs. international exposure. "The US stocks most exposed to exports have far outperformed domestic-focused companies ever since Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs in April. Stock markets are assuming tariffs are definitively over."

ICYMI

DC Lite #398

"The 'Big Money' is very bullish on risk assets, which one can read as good or bad for stocks"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-398

DC Lite #397

"Today, bulls are LOWER than we'd expect given $SPX, that tends to be bullish"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-397

DC Lite #396

"The $SPX 3-month realized volatility just fell by 8.2 points, marking the largest single-day decline since 1987"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-396

DC Lite #395

"This ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite and economic strength"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-395

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