DC Lite #397

1. DXY vs. SPX. "The USD-S&P correlation has turned positive ... Positive correlation could be just a temporary reflection of the post-Liberation Day market action ... However, if this trend were to persist, it could be a sign of USD losing its safe-haven characteristics."

2. Bitcoin ETF flows. "$IBIT blew through the $80b mark last night, fastest ETF to get there in 374 days, about 5x faster than the previous record, held by $VOO, which did it in 1,814 days. Also at $83b it's now 21st biggest ETF overall."

3. Retail trading activity. "The Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) climbed for the first month after three straight declines, but by less than 2.5% and not much above May's two-year lows. Clients ... remained large net sellers on a dollar basis in the information technology sector once again ... even as they net bought six of 11 S&P 500 sectors."

4. Returns vs. sentiment. "$SPX Returns predict sentiment, but knowing that relationship, we can tease out how bullish investors are versus those returns. Today, bulls are LOWER than we'd expect given $SPX, that tends to be bullish."

5. EPS estimates vs. actuals. "Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report year-over-year growth in earnings above 9% for the second quarter."

ICYMI