DC Lite #394

"US household leverage (liabilities to net wealth) is the lowest in 50 years"

Author

Daily Chartbook
July 08, 2025

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Household leverage. "US household leverage (liabilities to net wealth) is the lowest in 50 years."

2. Growth expectations. "The bond market continues to price the next Fed move to be a cut, with the expectation that growth is slowing down. But the stock market is trading cyclicals higher relative to defensives, with the expectation that growth is about to accelerate."

3. 'Melt up' talk. "Despite US equities reaching new highs, there is little evidence of irrational exuberance."

4. Investment Manager Index. "Equity investor risk appetite turns positive for first time since January … Risk mood buoyed by improved views on fundamentals and macro landscape … Financials and tech most favored by large margin."

5. Q2 EPS. "Earnings expectations for the second quarter fell sharply after Liberation Day — more than in any of the previous five quarters. But the fall is over, and forecasts reported to Bloomberg showed an uncharacteristic slight increase just after the quarter-end."

ICYMI

DC Lite #393

"The sectors that should be leading are leading, and the ones that usually lag are lagging"

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DC Lite #392

"When the most important stocks in the market are breaking out as a group, that’s a powerful message"

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DC Lite #391

"Historically, July has been the best month of the year for silver"

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DC Lite #390

"We expect erosion of US 'exceptionalism', not its complete demise"

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