DC Lite #395

"This ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite and economic strength"

Author

Daily Chartbook
July 09, 2025

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Mortgage demand. The MBA Purchase Index rose to its highest level since February 2023 in the week ending July 4.

2. Macro conditions. "The overall equity movement is perceived as occurring in one of the most favorable macro environments, characterized by a depreciating dollar, narrowing credit spreads, subdued inflation, and interest rates remaining below 4.5%."

3. Copper vs. gold. "This ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite and economic strength. Every time it’s dropped to these levels over the past 16 years, buyers have stepped in ... I can’t think of a more logical place for it to begin outperforming gold than right here."

4. Short interest. Short interest (as a % of market cap) for the top 10 most shorted stocks has moderated recently but is still hovering near 5-year highs.

5. Q2 EPS growth. "Deutsche Bank anticipates a modest slowdown in S&P 500 earnings growth due to tariffs, whereas the consensus expects a significantly sharper deceleration in Q2 2025."

ICYMI

DC Lite #394

"US household leverage (liabilities to net wealth) is the lowest in 50 years"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-394

DC Lite #393

"The sectors that should be leading are leading, and the ones that usually lag are lagging"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-393

DC Lite #392

"When the most important stocks in the market are breaking out as a group, that’s a powerful message"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-392

DC Lite #391

"Historically, July has been the best month of the year for silver"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-391

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