"Buybacks are heading into blackout"

1. US crude oil rig count. The US has added 43 crude oil rigs since the US-Iran conflict began.

2. Trump Pressure Index. There is “a good chance that Trump will choose an offramp soon now that pressure is clearly building (Trump TACO/Pressure indexes are the highest since March).”

3. Margin debt. "After reaching +50%, margin-debt YoY growth has steadily cooled to +37.2%. (Periods above +50% YoY are shaded in grey)."

4. Buyback window. "Buybacks are heading into blackout ... One of the market's largest structural buyers is stepping aside during exactly the window when the calendar is weakest."

5. AI dependents. "Some firms' revenue is almost existentially tied to the capex decisions of one or two players. Here's a chart showing the top five companies' revenue dependence on the ecoverse."

ICYMI