"Although firms are raising capex these past few quarters, dividends are rising faster"

1. FOMC. The committee voted unanimously to raise the target range by 25bps to 3.75-4%. The path forward for monetary policy offered by the dot plot moved slightly higher, but the median dot shows just one more hike this year and none in 2027.

2. Q3 GDPNow. "The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model shows Q3 GDP growth tracking toward an annualized 5.1%. If that comes to fruition, it would be the best quarter since Q4 2021."

3. SPX vs. 10Y 5-handle. "When the 10-year yield trades with a 5-handle, equity market returns are among the worst of any range."

4. SPX vs. hiking cycles. "The pace of tightening has mattered historically: fast rate hiking cycles were followed by negative returns over one to 12 months, while slow cycles were positive in all but one period."

5. Dividends vs. capex. "Although firms are raising capex these past few quarters, dividends are rising faster. If we go back to the storied late-90s, the golden period Warsh likes to believe we are in once again ... dividends were about 20% of capital expenditures. Today, it is close to 50%."

ICYMI