"All of the SOX components are under their 50dma"

1. Hawkish positioning. "Investors have placed an extremely high-conviction bet that the hawkish repricing we've already seen over the past few weeks has further to run ... it may not take much to unwind all of this positioning. In fact, the real paradox may be that a Fed hike itself becomes the catalyst that unwinds these crowded hawkish bets."

2. Corporate buybacks. "We currently estimate that ~31% of S&P 500 corporates (by count) are in their open window. By the end of next week, we estimate ~53% of the S&P 500 will be in open window. This brings one of the market's larger buyers back into equities."

3. Hedge funds vs. Tech. "Info Tech was by far the most $ net bought global sector [last] week ... led in $ terms by Tech Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, Electronic Equip, and IT Svcs, while Software and Semis & Semi Equip were net sold."

4. Semis vs. 50DMA. "All of the SOX components are under their 50dma for the first time since April 23, 2025".

5. Revisions breadth. The share of S&P 500 companies seeing positive 3-month changes in top- and bottom-line estimates are both near cycle highs.

ICYMI