"More S&P 500 companies are raising their outlooks than maintaining or cutting them"

1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. "The US had already drained much of its strategic reserve to get through the first year of the Ukraine war, and stocks are now their lowest since 1983."

2. 2Y yield. The yield on US 2-year Treasuries is up to its highest since Feb'25.

3. BTC options. "The one-week 25-Delta Skew has collapsed to its cheapest in months, downside protection abandoned fastest at the front of the curve, and the move runs through the one-month tenor as well."

4. Earnings momentum. "More S&P 500 companies are raising their outlooks than maintaining or cutting them. The measure, known as profit guidance momentum, has climbed to a record in Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 2011."

5. Internet vs. AI. "The worrisome part of a boom cycle is when companies closest to final demand roll over, even as capital spending beneficiaries of the cycle keep on thriving ... The obvious parallel to today is soaring stock prices and free cash flow for semiconductor companies (the caboose) even as the front end of the train (hyperscalers) are seeing stock prices stagnate and free cash flow plummet."

ICYMI