"93% probability the US has moved into a ‘high’ productivity period"

1. US productivity. "Our Markov-switching model—a tool used by economists to judge the likelihood that an economic measure is behaving meaningfully different than before—suggests a 93% probability the US has moved into a ‘high’ productivity period".

2. Business applications. "Notable improvement in US new business applications that have a high propensity to create jobs."

3. Indeed Wage Growth Tracker. "Posted wages rose 2.4% over the year ending June 2026, matching its annual growth rate registered over the preceding three months. Advertised wages have been growing more slowly than prices since mid-2025, but the recent inflationary run-up has widened the gap considerably."

4. Asset managers vs. VIX. Asset manager long positioning in VIX futures is in the 1st percentile.

5. Hyperscaler credit spreads. "The recent widening in credit spreads of hyperscaler bonds has reignited investor debate about the viability of their business models, especially in light of their abundant capex."

ICYMI