"A record two-thirds of institutional investors expect oil prices to fall"

1. NFP. "It's notable that the trend in revisions has turned positive in recent months, after being consistently negative for most of the past several years. (This chart shows only the monthly revisions, but QCEW data suggests we shouldn't expect a big negative benchmark this year either.)"

2. WEI. "The Weekly Economic Index, which aggregates 10 high-frequency daily and weekly data series to track real-time US economic activity, rose to 3.2% for the week of May 29, its highest reading since August 2022. This suggests that real GDP is growing around 3% y/y."

3. Institutional investors vs. oil. "A record two-thirds of institutional investors expect oil prices to fall despite continued disruption to the flow of oil from the Middle East ... The 839 investors polled between June 1-3 were the most bearish on oil in the 10-year history of the survey."

4. Price vs. breadth. "SPY has already logged 9 days this year making a 52-week high while more S&P 500 stocks fell than rose. Last year's full-year total was 12."

5. SPX RSI reversal. The S&P 500's 14-day RSI went from overbought to below 50 in 3 days. Historically, that hasn't necessarily been bearish. See the full dashboard here.

ICYMI