"A historic earnings boom is developing"

1. Gold vs. copper vs. oil. "What does the world look like if oil prices are hitting new all time highs just like gold and copper did recently?"

2. US crude oil rigs. The US crude oil rig count fell by 3 to 407 in the week ending Apr 24. That matches the count at the start of the war on Feb 27.

3. Seasonality. "Yes, the worst six months are coming up soon (May - October). But these six months have been lower only once the past decade and last year was the greatest Sell in May return ever (+22.8%). We are expecting another strong return this year."

4. EPS revisions vs. drawdowns. "A historic earnings boom is developing. Estimates growing faster than they did in the mid-90s or late internet bubble years. Only covid recovery period saw a greater inflection. This boom is unique b/c it is not coming off an EPS drawdown (recovery)."

5. Q1 earnings. 84% of companies have delivered higher-than-expected EPS. This is above the 5- and 10-year averages. In aggregate, companies are reporting EPS that are 12.3% above estimates. This is also higher than the 5- and 10-year averages.

ICYMI