"We may be getting closer to the turn"

1. CPI. "Food and energy came in hot. But if you exclude that, goods came in hot. But if you exclude that, shelter came in hot. But if you exclude that, the rest of core non-housing services came in hot. If you exclude that, then, well, there's nothing left."

2. AI vs. economy. "Far from the job killer many feared, AI has so far been an engine of job growth. Since ChatGPT launched four years ago, the economy has added 4.1 million jobs. By our estimates, AI is responsible for 786,000 of them, or nearly one-fifth, net of the jobs lost to AI substitution. AI's contribution has grown over the past year to 284,000 of the 943,000 jobs created, or nearly one-third."

3. Cross-asset momentum. "Risk-off is getting old. SG XMOMO is at 36%, cautious for a 10th week. Only the 2022 Fed hiking cycle produced a longer risk-off signal, at 11 weeks. We may be getting closer to the turn."

4. Schwab Trading Activity Index. The STAX rose to a fresh 4-year high in October as investors bought the dip in Tech stocks, and semis in particular.

5. BTFD. "ETF investors didn't just buy the dip, they DEVOURED it, about $12b/day in flows past 5 days with the top 17 ETFs all being equity (not sure i've ever seen that). Vanguardians and degens are very dif ppl playing very dif games but they def agree on one thing: you buy the dip."

ICYMI